>> Anyone else care to comment on the Q4 numbers? <<
- I think you mean to say FYE 1997 numbers.
We are waiting for ALYD to report their year end results.
We have already seen the preliminary Q4 numbers.
It is pretty simple to estimate what range the numbers will come in.
1. If you remember from our favorite news paper, the Charlotte Business Journal, ALYD's 1997 sales were said to come in at approx. $11 million
exchange2000.com
2. Next we will take a look at the last 10Q that ALYD filed.
sec.gov
In this filing you will find the following:
Nine Months Ended 9/30/97
==============================
Revenues $ 4,566,839
Operating Expenses
Payroll and related costs .... $9,369,319
Depreciation & amortization ... 455,329
Other operating expenses ... 2,403,611
Total Operating Expenses $ 12,228,269
Operating Loss $ (7,661,420)
Other Income $27,386
Net Loss $(7,634,034)
================================
These number show us that ALYD burns approx. $4.1 million per Q. Since ALYD is constantly adding more people, we should expect to see the burn rate increase in Q4.
We also see that for the nine months ended 9/30/97.... ALYD had already lost in excess of $7.6 million.
4. Now we will look at the preliminary Q4 numbers ALYD released on Feb. 6 th.
biz.yahoo.com
If you remember they had approx. $6.5 million in revenues and the release said the company earned a small profit
What does this tell us ?
==========================
Well, if we add the Q4 revenues of $6.5 million to the 9 month ended 9/30/97 revenues of $4.5 million, that will tell us the FYE revenues should be around $11 million. (as was reported in the Business Journal)
We also see in the Feb. 6th Q4 news release, ALYD said they only showed a small profit in Q4 on the $6.5 million in revenues brought in.
Now If we go back and look at the 9 months ended 9/30/97 data, we will remember that ALYD's avg. expenses ran about $4.1 million per Q. So if they only made a "small" profit on $6.5 million in revenues in Q4, then their expenses must have gone up significantly.
We should also note that ALYD listed their international and domestic figures separately.
The Company expects that final audited operating results for the fourth quarter will reflect an operating profit for its domestic operations while Alydaar's European subsidiary, Alydaar International, PLC, will experience a small loss. These results are in line with management's expectations. Management anticipates both operations will realize considerable sales increases and operating profits for 1998. Final audited numbers will be released by March 15, 1998.
Chances are that once you combine the two there wouldn't be a profit to speak of. why do you think ALYD listed them separately. I would guarantee you that if the international subsidiary had shown a profit they would of combined the two.
Anyway, for the sake of argument, let us say that ALYD made a $1.5 million profit in Q4 on the $6.5 million in revenues they brought in and that the international subsidiary broke even.
Well, if you go back and look at the 9 months ended 9/30/97 data, you will see that as of Q3 the company had accumulated a Net Loss $(7,634,034).
Even if we add in the $1.5 million figure we would see that the company would still show a Net Loss in excess of $(6,000,000) FYE 1997.
It is easy to see that ALYD will show a significant loss FYE 1997. I personally think the loss could be in the $7.5 to $8 million range.
I know that certain individuals on this thread will try to draw attention away from these numbers by throwing out all kinds of estimated projections for Q1 1998 and FYE 1998.
Before you or anyone else starts to fall for the hype, you should ask yourself if ALYD has even been able to meet any of these wild revenue projections ?
Ask yourself if Bob "slick" Gruder has mislead the shareholders and put out all kinds of expectations that have always been grandiose in nature.
ALYD's stock price will drop once these numbers come out. In an attempt to stop the bleeding, I can assure you that Gruder will put out another BIG name little disclosure press release. We are also sure to hear some more wild estimates for Q1.
This should be interesting.
btw- as you can see this post is filled full of FACTUAL information that has been "linked". The numbers and data can NOT be disputed. I am sure, to change the subject, certain posters will turn to the personal attacks. They can't fight the data, so they try to draw attention away from it.
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