INDEX UPDATE
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NDX - per my earlier posts, I indicated that we should watch the NDX, since it was forming a HEAD & SHOULDER, and if there was not a substantial break to the upside thru 1180 such formation was intact.
Although the NDX was up, it did not break 1180 substantially and actually trailed the NAZ which set a new high.
Needless to say that with yesterdays performance the overall market is again, across the board, overbought and is a CLASS SELL, with the buy-in point at the high of today.
The short-term technicals is agreeing with my mid-term analysis that weakness to start WED/THUR. Please understand that my short-term and mid-term analysis does consist of different data, so they do not always give the same projection.
If a pullback does occur this week, it should not be a big one - maybe another 100-200 point drop, with the maximum bottom of 8350-8400(this week).
Here are the technically weaker indexes:
SOX, DDX, OSX, XCI, NDX
Interest rates now appear to be the main motivation, along with equity, for this market to continue up. As I indicated yesterday, on just a technical basis the short/mid-term trend is to the upside with a target of 6.15% by the second week of April. Since I am not a fundamentalist, it has been brought to my attention that the interest rates will continue down, which is contrary to the technicals, at least for the short/mid-term. I have noticed that the price of CRUDE is having a strong impact on the interest rates, and believe that as CRUDE drops, there is even less inflationary pressures which helps pull the interest rates down.
Right now CRUDE is around $14.00/barrel, and there is speculation that it will get to $12.00 or less. If that is the case, do not feel that interest rates will move up.
Talking about crude - if CRUDE gets to $12.00/barrel feel that we should be buying future options on CRUDE. Any CRUDE OIL commodity experts out there??
Seeya |
