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Pastimes : Ask Mohan about the Market
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (14906)3/17/1998 8:07:00 AM
From: tekgk  Read Replies (2) of 18056
 
Zeev,

I give the market more time and higher levels than you do. I give it another 5-6 weeks with a high of 9500-9600 on the DJIA. This prediction is not based on my usual complicated technical analysis (which has the top much lower and a correction much earlier) or any sort of fundamental valuation. I used simple historical tulip mania pattern matching for this prediction (duration and angle of the final vertical rise). The pattern is so simple first book value doesn't matter(PB >6), then yield doesn't matter (negative adjusted for inflation), then revenue growth doesn't matter (flat and declining), then earnings don't matter (PE nearly 27 S&P), then earnings growth doesn't matter(First Call 3.7%). At the end all is that matters is momentum, which results in a nearly vertical line to the top. During the final stage the best performers are speculative issues (AOL comes to mind).

BWDIK
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