Another excerpt from:
videodiscovery.com
[1.9] How quickly will DVD become established?
Not as fast as generally predicted, but faster than videotape, laserdisc, and CD. By the end of 1997 over 500,000
DVD-Video players shipped worldwide. 349,482 of these were in the US (with about 200,000 actually sold into homes).
About ?? video titles were available worldwide, with ?? million copies shipped. About 600 video titles were available in the
US, with over 5 (?) million copies shipped and about 2 million sold. Around 330,000 DVD-ROM drives were shipped
worldwide with about 1 million bundled DVD-ROM titles. Only 60 DVD-ROM titles were available by the end of 1997.
Here are some predictions:
Toshiba (1996): 100,000 to 150,000 DVD-Video players will be sold in Japan between Nov. 1 and Dec. 31, 1996,
and 750,000-1 million by Nov. 1, 1997. (Actual count of combined shipments by Matsushita, Pioneer, and Toshiba
was 70,000 in Oct-Dec 1996.)
Pioneer (1996): 400,000 DVD-Video players in 1996, 11 million by 2000. 100,000 DVD-Audio players in 1996, 4
million by 2000.
InfoTech (1996): 820,000 DVD-Video players in first year, 80 million by 2005.
CEMA (1997): 400,000 DVD-Video players in U.S. in 1997, 1 million in 1998.
Time-Warner (1996): 10 million DVD players in the U.S. by 2002.
Paul Kagan (1997): 800,000 DVD players in the U.S. in 1997, 10 million in 2000, and 40 million in 2006 (43%
penetration). 5.6 million discs sold in 1997, 172 million discs in 2000, and 623 million in 2006.
C-Cube (1996): 1 million players and drives in 1997.
BASES: 3 million DVD-Video players sold in first year, 13 million sold in 6th year.
Dataquest (1997): over 33 million shipments of DVD players and drives by 2000.
Philips (1996): 25 million DVD-ROM drives worldwide by 2000 (10% of projected 250 million optical drives).
Pioneer (1996): 500,000 DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 54 million sold in 2000.
Toshiba (1996): 120 million DVD-ROM drives in 2000 (80% penetration of 100 million PCs). Toshiba says they will
no longer make CD-ROM drives in 2000.
IDC (1997): 10 million DVD-ROM drives sold in 1997, 70 million sold in 2000 (surpassing CD-ROM), 118 million
sold in 2001. Over 13% of all software available on DVD-ROM in 1998. DVD recordable drives more than 90% of
combined CD/DVD recordable market in 2001.
AMI (1997): installed base of 7 million DVD-ROM drives by 2000.
Intel (1997): 70 million DVD-ROM drives by 1999 (sales will surpass CD-ROM drives in 1998).
SMD (1997): 100 million DVD-ROM/RAM drives shipped in 2000.
Microsoft (Peter Biddle, 1997): 15 million DVD-PCs sold in 1998, 50 million DVD-PCs sold in 1999.
Forrester Research (1997): U.S. base of 53 million DVD-equipped PCs by 2002. 5.2% of U.S. households (5 million)
will have a DVD-V player in 2002; 2% will have a DVD-Audio player.
Yankee Group (Jan 1998): 650,000 DVD-Video players by 1998, 3.6 million by 2001. 19 million DVD-PCs by 2001.
InfoTech (Jan 1998): 20 million DVD-Video players worldwide in 2002, 58 million by 2005. 99 million DVD-ROM
drives worldwide in 2005. No more than 500 DVD-ROM titles available by the end of 1998. About 80,000
DVD-ROM titles available by 2005.
For comparison, there are about 700 million audio CD players and 160 million CD-ROM drives worldwide in 1997. 1.2
billion CD-ROMs were shipped worldwide in 1997 from a base of about 46,000 different titles. There are about 80 million
VCRs in the U.S. (89% of households) and about 400 million worldwide. There are about 250 million TVs in the US and 1.2
billion worldwide. Estimated 1997 U.S. sales: 7.7 million VCRs, 900,000 projection televisions. |
