MB:
I believe you speak of David G. You are correct that he really took the three of us to task for our temerity in endeavouring to estimate the all-up cost of production, which he saw as a ludicrous and foolish exercise. Funny thing, our estimates were rather accurate (g).
Personally, I enjoyed his pointing out in no uncertain terms that MU was producing at 25 micron line width, even when the S.E.C. filings stated 30. When this was pointed out to him, he merely raised the level of the rhetoric. Shortly thereafter, one of the boys called the company and obtained confirmation of the 30 figure. I don't believe there was ever an owning up to the gaff, but it was a cause for a small grin at this end. (g)
I do note that MU is getting into 25 now, so perhaps he was projecting. (g)
Anyway, he's not a bad guy I'm sure. We all get a bit emotional from time to time. Reminds me of an occasion when I endeavoured to cross swords with Steve over CPQ's numbers and and forgot to calculate a stock split. Embarrassingly stupid, and Steve had a ball pointing out this tiny "miscalculation" on my part. (g)
With respect to Dell, you will probably prove to be accurate, but the state of near panic out in the field has to be seen to be believed. I just can't see Dell sustaining sales if they try to maintain elevated prices in this environment (I think they got all the really dumb nerds at Christmas), and they have to be hurting as business MIS managers dig in below $1,000. Servers and routers were last year's saviour, but it is darned near as crowded there now as in the PC sector. We are seeing lots of signs that the whole networking sector has peaked and is entering the " test brakes, 6% downhill gradient ahead for 5 miles" part of the cycle. Time will tell.
I'm still mostly an observer until the liquidity shots subside a bit. Japanese money managers have a long and honorable tradition to uphold......."LIFO".......Last in, (at peaks), last out (at Death Valley levels). (g)
They seem bound and determined to do it again this time.
Sounds like conditions in the Texas PC retail environment are identical to what I'm seeing up here
Best, Earlie |
