>>Um, so why should we believe that it will be correct this time around?<<
I'm not saying it will be, in fact I didn't know he was doing another report. His numbers didn't influence me before and I wouldn't put much wieght on them now. Nothing against him, his effort wasn't all that far off really, considering that it's very difficult to make clear financial estimations of a company with very little post merger history and going through so much change, this isn't KO afterall.
>>Why do you suppose that FIBR won't use the same financing scheme to ramp up the new products?<<
Given an appropriate circumstance more shares would be fine. A ramp up is appropriate. SUN Micro approved an astronomical amount for a similar purpose. It's hardly a scheme to raise capital for the building of factories or tooling up, that is in fact why companies go public.
>>Do you really think a secondary is a possibility? Par said in the 12/97 conference call that (at least some of) the extra 30 million shares would be set aside to finance the ramp up.<<
Sounds plausible to me. If the company financed growth through cash I think it would be quite slow growth. If Osicom's products turn out to be very succesful then a secondary will likely be needed. I'm not in this for slow growth so if they do a secondary to meet market demand for products then it would have to be viewed as a sign of success. In fact if they are able to build all the Net+Arms and Gigamuxes the world can eat with current capacity it would be more negative than a secondary.
>>Frankly, I'll believe they are delivering shareholder value when I see it.<<
Fair enough. But I think it's too early to throw in the towel. The share count that had me worried was the full disclosure, made necessary by the new accounting rules, resulting from the aquisitions. That number, 21 mil., did not seem unreasonable to me. If we continue to get new shares without a well defined purpose, or if they fail to generate any sort of market for their new products then the sun will have set in my eyes as well.
Part 1 aquisitons completed.
Part 2 new products developed.
Part 3 sales of new products.
As you can see we are at part 3. So far Osicom hasn't let me down as these goals have existed since I first purchased the stock. Yes this phase is very pivotal and probably will offer Osicom the biggest challenge. IMHO It's just a bit too soon to give up. Not to wave the "just one more quarter flag" But definately within the next 6 months we will have a very clear picture of Osicoms future by virtue of market acceptance of the new products.
Scott |
