Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 143.23

-2.9%

Nov 18 3:59 PM EST

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To: Math Junkie who wrote (4998)	3/17/1998 9:26:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 10921

To all, how about a compromise. The semi-eq sector, with annual swings in excess of 50%, is uniquely affected by the Asian situation more than any sector I know. Correctly timing an up (or down) trend can be very rewarding. The thread seems to be heavy on the Asian side and light on the semi-eq. May be an invitation to Mason and Cary (if you guys are still out there) are in order to balance the flow of information. I have to admit that I am clueless at this time, as to whether the sector is approaching bottom or still has more to go. It is amazing that in a short six months or so, everything that was going so well are imploding with over capacity, devaluation, bank failures, political unrest and who knows what is around the corner. If I have to make a decision today, my guess is the worst is yet to come. It is obvious that the Japanese has more problems than they are willing to face. The Koreans appear to have stopped all imports, either voluntarily or involuntarily. Taiwan is hanging in there but I think all agree that it is too small of an economy to be of consequence. Malaysia's high tech plans may be too much too soon, without the support of trained or educated work force. Singapore banks just came under the scrutiny of S&P and IMF. They may have problems also. Indonesia is ready for another of IMF work out. Finally it is China that may be the stabilizing force. Having just returned from Beijing, I sure hate to be betting my farm on the Chinese strategy, though I think Zhu Rhuji has as much chance as anyone in succeeding. So where does it leave the likes of AMAT with 50% exposure to the region? Anyone? Ramsey

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