IGL; I haven't crunched the numbers, but at least 50% of the volume
was nothing but borrowed shares rolling positions. Likely more than
that.
It's hard to say and I've only done a rush job, back in Sept short
interest got to about 91M..out of that bunch over 60M were sqeezed
out at around $39 before she started down, the other 30M belonged
mostly were the brokers, ( they win over the other shorts ) they
covered at $32 in Nov. It went to zero..it built up kind of slow
till last part of FEB it jumep up, to about 60M @32..keep in
mind half of that is likely held by the brokers, they sort of
maintain a balance..but they stay on top of the outside shorts,
depending on how orders are coming in, they short first when
they see orders to short or large sell orders, they get to see
in house stuff before it even gets to the floor..there is an
advantage in having a seat on the stock exchange, each house
knows his percentage of the over all, and can guage their
in house orders to match. Some times they can get blind sided
but they have a way of dealing with that only the dumbest of
ones ever lose. ( like well I don't want to mention their name
on the thread ) <g>
They work the short side down, sometimes a share may only be
short a half of day, they are steady at it as orders roll in
adjusting all the way. It's just a guess on my part but I
would say 70m are short right now..half of them brokers,
and that half that batch (35m) of borrowed shares likely churn
in a day and a half..two days at most..by the time she starts
up volume will slow down..the brokers will have pushed all
the remaining shares short on unsuspecting victumes, by
covering their position as the new ones come in.
At this point depending on the amount of stop losses they see
they may even buy, as they have a ready made market.
As the shorts get picked off they often try to average down,
and short more, each time they do the brokers reset the trap,
short interest then starts to rise..and so does the stock
price..then when you see about 2/3rds of the shorts give up
the stock will start back down. The balance being held
by the brokers..and covered as buy orders come in.
---------------
If my offhand fast look at things is half way close so far
the the outside shorts are not in troble, she could go on down
if they get new blood, it's like a ponzi scam in reverse..
for the shorts, and towards the top it turns into that for the
longs..don't ever think you brokerage house is your friend when
it comes to them making a buck, and surly not if it's going
to cost them.
------------------
They not in it just for commissions..if that was all they got
you would not have any discounters. People who get hooked on
shorting are trying for a fast buck..the broker has no problem
nailing them..only about 10 to 15% of the outsiders who short
without inside information, and up to the minute data make
money..the brokerage houses make most all there is to make on
the short side. There are some winners..but like at the race
track..they start to think they got it figured and sooner or
latter give it all back, and then some.
--------------------
If you can get good enough to buy puts just when you see the
short sqeez happening you can make a few bucks. As the stock
most often falls after the sqeez.
I don't think we are close to anything like that with CPQ..
she could start basing any day..or they may get enough shorts
to come in on the bad news to take her on down some more.
-------------------------
When all the nervous nellies sell off..she will start up,
reguardless of the news. Look for a day with maybe only 10m
to 15m shares trading then back up the truck and get a load.
IF that happens..when the volume falls..the outside
shorts that came in late are in deep kimshe. From that point
on they will help drive the price up..untill they cover.
-------------------------
I'm still buying..I would say fair price at this time is $32,
$3O at the lowest..and she will go there regardless of the
news..as all that will soon be forgotten. People will once
again see all the bright side..and the same anal-cyst who
down graded her a month ago will change his mind and start
singing about her beauty. ( that's the way anal-cyst are you
know ) <G>
Mean while you will be assulted by all kinds of bad tidings
from some shorts who have the habit of thinking they are
above average in the brain department, and want to talk their
position. I can stay long longer than they can stay short,
and I have the strongest weapon of all on my side. "TIME"
no margins and no dept, and over 60% in bonds and Money Markets
that I can still cut lose with.
Jim
Jim
|
