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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 228.68+1.2%Nov 17 3:59 PM EST
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To: Ian@SI who wrote (17785)3/17/1998 11:22:00 PM
From: Jerome  Read Replies (2) of 70976
 
Ian, don't be down on jtech just because he predicted (25 times in the last l3 trading days) that AMAT was heading for the 20's . Redundancy may be the next big thing on SI.
What is keeping AMAT up? Several things. l) As the DOW keeps moving higher a certain amount of the money flowing into the maket is going to go to the best tech stocks. AMAT qualifies very well. 2) I cannot prove it but I suspect that foreigners wanting to invest in the American Markets are now buying tech stocks on the cheap. After all how many Korean or Indonesian stocks would you care to invest in now? 3)Thanks to people like Jtech we are now at the pont of maximum pessimism and this is usually a good time to load up. Iexpect the we will see 39 as a close long before we see 29 as a close. 4) Suppose Jtech is right and AMAT heads to 29. How long do you think it will linger there? Two days or two hours or somewhere in between. A basic rule of tech investing is that you have to buy great companies when they are despised. Suppose as others have suggested that AMAT goes to l00 dollars per share in the next two years. It could make a majority of that move in the last six months of the two year period. But then again tech stocks have a history of doing U-turns at the most unpredictable times. My point is buy AMAT today at 33 or buy it later at 39+. I hate to admit it but Jtecks postings represent conventional wisdom of the moment. But it has been my experience that conventional wisdom will get you killed a lot more ofter than it will get you wealthy.

Regards,.... Jerome
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