Sergio,
I heard on CNBC where one of the managers indicated that he mainly follows the PUT/CALL ratio and since it was still above .5 he felt that it would still move up or not be a worry. I may be too critical of him, but I got the impression that he did not even believe there would be any pullback this week and that we would be up.
I think that he is misreading it, and tend to agree with you that such should be interpreted that if there is a pullback it will not be large this week. He indicated that it was around .7 which I feel is the normal range. So I interpret that the PUT/CALL ratio will not have a strong effect on this weeks market on either the up or down side, since I feel that such ratio is in neutral territory. So if the PUT/CALL ratio is neutral, then other technical indicators will take precedence.
Frankly, I do watch the PUT/CALL ratio but not pay strong attention to it, since it can not be determine immediately how much was buying or selling. I do feel that the PUT/CALL ratio has more use to determine the bigger moves rather than the small ripples which us day-trading option players need. Also, I recall the PUT/CALL ratio was below .5 when the DOW was around 8200-8300 and remember it being mentioned on CNBC that many felt it would pullback at that time.
As for the big position of PUTS to CALLS, which you mentioned, I am still studying it. Not real sure what to make of it, not that I am disagreeing with you, but that I am really not that proficient in that area.
Seeya, |
