Barb- my estimates and projections were revised down the second time around, not up.
Yes, my projected revenue target was missed last year because of several factors:
1)My assumption in my target revenue stated that the Networking industry would grow by approximately 30%, which is what the research groups were predicting. According to InStat, they only grew 16% last year, making last year the slowest growth in history for the networking industry.
2)The company divested a subsidiary that contributed approximately $8 million. I had no idea they would do that or even had thoughts about doing that.
3)You seem to be singling me out as the only one who's estimates were off. Have you looked at where Chapman, Crowell Weedon, Oberweiss and BI Research's numbers were at? They were off as well.
4)Key product introductions did not roll out on time as expected, causing a significant delay in predicted revenues and earnings.
5)Missing the estimates during this time frame isn't specific only to Osicom. Check out leaders and competitors COMS, ASND, XION, CS, NN, BAY during this same time period.
6)In addition, it is extremely difficult to forecast revenues after a merger. When you consider the number of mergers they did in 1997 for a tiny company like Osicom, it is virtually impossible.
Barb- I have specifically waited this long to publish another research piece for the sole reason that I wanted to make sure that their was good reason to expect the revenues and earnings to climb. Now that the 3 key products are finally shipping and being accepted very well in the market, I felt now was the best time to do it.
The numbers I have projected fall under the phrase "Once bitten, Twice Shy." I have predicted very little growth for the old product line, which is consistent with history and guided the increase in revenues mainly from the new products that are really beginning to pick up momentum.
Put it this way, if they can't meet the estimates that I have put forth, then even I will consider selling. But based on my research of the initial responses from the market, I don't believe that will be the case. |
