Sam, unfortunately I don't subscribe to Internet World. Also, I am not an Internet consultant, just a computer consultant. Yes, there is a big difference. :-) Please summarize the article.
I jumped on your use of the word pipedream because it was misleading. You may have wrote elsewhere that broadband technology exist, but when you said "such technology is only a pipedream", you were saying it doesn't exist. Please be careful about your choice of words, the same goes for me. We can never be sure who is reading our messages.
If the subscriber count is accurate, AOL does indeed have a great growth rate so far. My table is meant to question future growth rates. Obviously the same growth rate cannot continue, so when will the slow-down occur? I think that's when the stock will take a tumble. Recent insider selling would suggest soon, IMHO. Also, how will the slow-down impact AOL's business model? None of these questions are being asked or answered by the analysts.
As for consumer vs. business sector, sometimes the link only becomes stronger after the market matures. Everyone has to work somewhere, right? They may be offered company subsidized ISP in the future. Especially the work-from-home model, I know some people who already has home ISDN for a year, paid for by their employers. No, I am not saying everyone will have such perks. Just that it may point to a trend to come.
It took modems about 10 years to mature. (I remember my first 300 baud modem in 1985.) But it really took off only in the last 3 years due to the popularity of Internet and WWW. If broadband is to become widespread, it won't take 10 years. It will take as fast as they can set up the cables and technolgies.
I like to hear your vision of what AOL will become in a year or two. How many subscribers? What kind of technology? Still using 33.3 and 56K? Not how much it will make, just what kind of service it will provide. |
