Technically, it is probable that after the breakout above 3.00, it should pull back to 3.00 and do some work there before moving higher. I really don't think we'll be breaking 2.78 at this point! (And might not even close below 3.00, but we'll see.)
I think the big drop in gold has quite a bit to do with the dollar's strength against the yen...as long as the dollar and the long bond are the 'safe haven' currency-wise, gold will not be strong (certainly not in terms of US dollars). Some are saying the long bond could go down to 5.50, others 5.00, others 4.50...if it gets that low there might be overall commodity price deflation with further weakness in oil, gold, and copper. But if gold goes to say 200, it sure won't stay there long, and soon thereafter will be substantially higher than it is right now. So if copper follows suit, IPJ might suffer, but only for a while! If they do actually have six multiple clusters of mineable size and grade, it will be one of the world's largest producers for many years to come!
Some analysts are saying that if copper breaks above 0.85 and stays, that will reflect a change in primary trend. If that happens, that should also lead the long bond lower (yield higher), also changing in primary trend. Jimmy Rogers still doesn't think bond futures will get below 6%, if that's the case then copper should break 0.85 before it goes a whole lot lower.
M. |
