Jeff, welcome aboard. Careful, posting gets addicting, someday you'll be beating out Jeff Mitchell and Tech Master for prime post numbers like #6000, #6666, etc.
Gruder has been rightfully criticized in the past for making projections he has not lived up to. It is important to remember, however, that he can only base projections upon contracts in hand and if lucky a preliminary schedule from clients as to when and how much code will be sent. If clients stray from this schedule, projections are useless. The safest thing would be for him to not make projections, yet everyone wants to hear one; much of the buzz lately is "what will he project for 1st qtr.?".
Jeff Mitchell did a wonderful job a few posts back explaining the "ramp up"; regardless of what Tech says, DuPont and McDonnell Douglas (and I assume many of their other large clients) would NEVER have committed to Alydaar if Bob hadn't built that infrastructure. He could have kept the co. with few employees, landed one or two clients, and been profitable with a couple of million in revenues; however, you don't get rewarded a large market capitalization (and probably don't survive post-2000) with a few clients and no potential to ever be anything more than a sub-$5mm rev. co.
You do build a future by landing many clients and having the potential to be a $100mm + rev. co.
As for Bob's previous business failure, all I had to know was that it was an Ada language co. From what I remember from freshman yr. of college, Ada was being pushed hard by the gov't. as a standard language, and we were all encouraged to take as many courses as we could. When the gov't. pulled the plug, I can assure you that Bob was not the only guy in the industry caught by surprise.
Your frustration and optimism are shared by almost everyone on this thread- this has not been a stock for the weak-of-heart. Buy-and-hold was the correct strategy for the early ride from 50 cents to $8 or so. Trading has been far more profitable from there, IF you were not on the sidelines during some nearly vertical moves. Who knows what strategy will work best in future? To each his own. I buy and hold because the stock has never reached what I think it is truly worth. Perhaps I will never make as much money as if I traded it w/ even modestly correct timing, but if you truly know what it is you own, it makes it a little easier to handle the downdrafts (or even get giddy about them like Tech Master!).
Good luck,
Felt Burner |
