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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 232.38

+3.2%

2:25 PM EST

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To: Teri Skogerboe who wrote (17838)	3/18/1998 11:26:00 AM
From: Steve Rolfe	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Teri, I never said .92 was a positive number in and of itself, only that it was positive compared with the expected.86-.88. Contracting orders still - yes, but not as bad as expected. Everyone knows that sooner or later this will turn up. My point was that the fact that the BTB was higher than expected might indicate that the decline or downtrend of BTB may end quicker than expected. I'm sure you have taken a test where you figure out what the the next number will be in a sequence. Which sequence would you expect a higher number in. A) .99 .93 .92 (differences of .06, .01) or B) .99 .93 .86 (differences of .06, .07) I think it is valid to say you would expect a smaller next number in sequence B than in sequence A. That is all I was saying... Also, If you look at GM's chart of BTB, we have been in a downtrend for 11 months(July was the only blip up). In 96 the downtrend lasted 7 months with a sharp turnaround albeit the decline was sharper than we are currently experiening. How long do you think BTB can decline and stay under 1? In 96 it stayed under 1 for 7 months. We have been right at 1 or below for 5 months now. I think GM's chart shows clearly that the avg BTB in this decade is over 1. If this is not THE silliest "logic" you have heard lately, may I ask what is? I was shooting for silliest, not just close to silliest <g>...

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