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Technology Stocks : Micron Only Forum

MU 232.50

-2.9%

2:18 PM EST

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To: TREND1 who wrote (30649)	3/18/1998 11:36:00 AM
From: rob	Read Replies (3) of 53903

Larry In the MU conference call they said they are ready for PC100 100Mhz BX Intel is releasing. No doubt the PC100 are harder to make. But there are two versions: 100Mhz CL=3 called the PC100 100Mhz part 0r -8A for MU 100Mhz CL=2 called the PC100 125Mhz part or -8E for MU The -8A is easier to make and essentially anyone making SDRAM parts today can meet this. The -8E part is much more difficult and MU even admits this at there website in the technical specification area. MU goes into a lengthy arguement that the performance improvment from -8A to -8E is only like 5%. Where as the improvment from 66Mhz buses to 100Mhz is like 20%. MU is encouraging OEM's to use 100Mhz buses even if they can not get the "fastest" -8E parts since your only missing 5% of the performance improvments. In a way the shift to 100Mhz buses us a "non-issue" since only the fastest Pent-II 400/450Mhz will use this. The volume for these high end systems will remain low as long as there AUP's remain greater than $2000. By 1Q99 this "fast" Pent-II will come down to the sub-$1000 range were all the volume is and the availabilty of PC100 -8E parts maybe more of an issue. But by then most DRAM guys will be running 0.25um-0.22um wafers and PC100 -8E is no problem. This goes back to my previous post that DRAM prices are constrained to around 10% of the box price. So as the AUP's of the average PC comes down the cost of the DRAM OEM's are willing to put in the box must also come down. And the reality is 32Mb is "good enough" for the main PC activity- surfing the net. The only reason OEM's will go to 64MB is if the "price is right". Same thing with PC100 parts. If for some technical freak PC100 are "harder" to make they will go for a premium then OEM will be less inclined to use them in larger quantities. The only thing which can be good here, which is something you impiled is if MU is among a "minority" of DRAM vendors who can provide PC100. I don't feel this true (based on my experience in the dram design biz) and second the slower -8A parts will be plentiful while the more difficult -8E parts don't offer much improvment over -8A so they might carry a premium, but volume will be small too. RP

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