Joseph,
You have probably the best approach to this. Fiber demand and fiber capacity demand is strong (good for CIEN, etc.)(bandwidth demand is doubling every 3.6 months per WCOM).
The data, at some point, has got to be switched. Good for ASND's ATM products.
And, at the most rudimentary level (a la Peter Lynch), I get on my computer and swear at the slow speed of the net, I get on Vocaltec and just can't believe what passes for internet telephony. All the boxes are out there (with more saturation to occur, of course). Now, we just gotta have bandwidth to make them talk to one another. Heck, we don't have enough bandwidth for decent voice, let alone video!
Every time I see the NWX tank, my running sarcastic comment is "looks like the internet is going away today." It ain't going away. The issue is how much infrastructure can we get in place before the TELCO, CLEC and ISP budgets run dry, and how long will that infrastructure demand remain. (ISP spending declines hurt ASND RAS/RAC in 1997). It will be this spending to put in place the necessary infrastructure that will push ASND, CIEN, etc. in the long term.
Gary Korn |
