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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services
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To: John Carson who wrote (15303)3/18/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Czechsinthemail  Read Replies (1) of 95453
 
These are tough waters to swim in unless you are able to take a long term view. Many oil traders continue to predict lower oil prices based on the current bearish fundamentals, while OPEC members can goose the market by talking about a meeting. Both have compelling reasons to manipulate the markets with their comments. There is obviously a powerful logic behind an OPEC meeting that would prop up oil prices, but without compelling evidence that there will be both an OPEC or super-OPEC meeting and a workable agreement, I think there is a good chance oil prices and drilling stock prices will weaken as the bearish view reasserts itself. The other uncertainty I see is how these companies fit into an overall stock market context. Though I think the likelihood of drillers outperforming over time is extremely high, they may go down a bunch if the overall market weakens while the oil price fears are up in everyone's face. The camouflaged bullish news has been the ongoing reduction of crude levels reported by API and the Dept. of Energy. Though I think caution rather than raging bullishness makes sense here, I think long term investors will do great simply buying and parking their shares.
Baird
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