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Technology Stocks : HDCO - Why sudden dip?
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To: James Burke who wrote (397)3/18/1998 5:26:00 PM
From: Paul Senior  Read Replies (1) of 572
 
Can't see it going lower, eh?

Well let's see. Over the past few years the pe has been averaging mostly around 10. You've seen that the low earning est. this year is for 2.8 with the mean about maybe $4.00. But that mean est. implies a very high -- at the higher range ROE. Based on historical values, it's not unreasonable to expect a $2.50 estimate IMO. For me, I'd be willing to guess at this point that most of the Zacks' analysts are closer to reducing their estimates rather than raising them (I'm not predicting what any analyst will do though -g-). We already might also have a concern about how well the integration is going with Zycon -- some postings have reflected this. So the value added this year by the acquisitions is iffy IMO. I can easily see HDCO selling at 25-28. Did you notice also that now we are seeing some further evidence of executives selling (although at much higher prices from today's)?
Lest I scare anyone out of the stock -g-, I'll add here that I am a buyer today, was a buyer yesterday, and a buyer the day and week before. For long term investors, it's reasonable to assume higher prices from what we are currently experiencing. That's my bet anyway - and I've been wrong many,many times before. Paul Senior
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