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Technology Stocks : Gorilla Game
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To: Jay Rommel who wrote (18)3/18/1998 7:02:00 PM
From: Wizard   of 387
 
In some ways MSFT/NSCP is comparable. However, there are also some pretty big differences.

It seems pretty clear to me that the internet (and e*mail) can now be viewed as what the real reasons for buying a PC today. The PC is truly a communications device, not just a business productivity (spreadsheets, word processing etc...) tool. Likewise, the enterprise client-server architecture was really meant for Supply Chain Management (SCM). ERP systems are order entry systems and add value but not in the way SCM does. The ERP and SCM companies will collide but SCM can add order entry systems faster than ERP can add SCM functionality. SAP is an outstanding company with deep pockets and for gorilla game investors there is always the option of not playing (and incurring no risk). However, announcing a product is only the first step. SAP has been in the customer support market for several years and has not been a significant threat to those vendors. SAP is a formidible competitor but the market has only recently entered the tornado and so times should be good for a while.

With regard to MANU's numbers, Moore would say MANU became a gorilla candidate when it reported its May quarter (in June) as that is when revenues showed their first year over year % gain of 100% growth. I would say it happened when they reported last Feb's quarterly report (license rev's grew an incredible 58% sequentially). Since then, growth has moderated and so has the stock. This is an important quarter for MANU. They should beat analysts estimates and force the street to revise numbers up in order to show renewed growth.
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