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Technology Stocks : Texas Instruments - Good buy now or should we wait?
TXN 176.29+0.1%Dec 19 9:30 AM EST
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To: pat mudge who wrote (3280)3/18/1998 8:23:00 PM
From: rob  Read Replies (2) of 6180
 
ACER was at 20000 wafer/mo run rate. TI MOS Mem DRAM
production is made up of

TI-ACER 1B 20000
KTI 1&2 30000
TECH 15000
TWINSTAR 3000
AMOS 2 7000
-----
75000 wafers/month

TWINSTARs production was mainly going to HITACHI I belive
its capacity is around 15000 wafers/month.

A few other things to I know about TI MOS Mem:

1) The contract with the TI-ACER sale stipulated the TI
needs to be the DRAM wafers till the end of the year
that is the any wafers ACER wants to sell to TI.

2) The wafer price is usually a % of the TI's ASP x number of
die on a wafer. Currently proccess in TI-ACER supports
440 16Mb per 8 in wafer, but is being moved to the 600
16Mb chips oer 8 in wafer proccess... if itsn't all ready
there.

3) So you figure out what TI-ACER gets and see if its worth
it... hint the % is around 60% and wafers coast about $1600
to $1800 to proccess... and don't forget yeild .

4) TI's payouts to its JV's in 1997 was $990Mil. This is not
some sort of "secret", but its well buried in there current
1997 Annual Report. If you don't belive me go hunt it for
yourself

5) TI's proccess DRAM technology is in general about 6mo-8mo
behind the industry leaders like MU, NEC, SAMSUNG. It not
that they don't have "it"... there DSP logic proccess rivals
that of Intel ... its that neither they or the JV's are
willing/can to upfront the capital to get the equiment need at
same rate as the leaders... ie still using I-LINE steppers
and phase shifiting for 0.28um instead of going for DUV
and 0.25um

So to all TI is still very much in the DRAM biz. Matter a fact
from all my sources I get the notion they intend to stay there
if they can... and that's the issue. Tom will stay in DRAM if
it does not cost him any extra money, sort of a "budget" DRAM
concept.

Of course I think this is ultimatly going to lead to failure
but for now they have no choice to run DRAM in those fabs,
the DSP demand is not there yet... but trust me they aren't
building anymore DRAM capacity either.

Enough for now...

RP

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