Another Turkish Update of great interest:
March 19, 1998
Turkey and Iran Agree to Cooperate in Combating PKK
According to the Turkish Andalua News Agency, Turkish Foreign Minister
Ismail Cem and Iranian Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi met during the
Islamic Conference in Doha, Qatar, and agreed to take allied action against
the Iraqi Kurdish group PKK. In effect, Turkey and Iran agreed to
reactivate joint security mechanisms that had fallen into disuse because of
tensions between the two countries.
The report is extremely important. As we have reported, Iran has been
intensely wooing Saudi Arabia ever since the end of the recent U.S.-Iraqi
crisis. Following an extensive visit by former Iranian President
Rasfanjani, the newspaper Al-Hayat recently reported that Iranian President
Khatami is planning a visit to Saudi Arabia following the Hajj. The Saudi
Foreign Minister is also expected to visit Iran. We now see the other arm
of Iranian diplomacy reaching out to Turkey. The Kurdish issue is of
fundamental importance to Turkey, which is concerned with security in its
own Kurdish areas. The willingness of Iran to cooperate in operations
against the PKK satisfies a basic Turkish need by increasing the forces
available for handling the Kurds and denying the Kurdish rebels refuge in
Iran.
Behind all this diplomatic maneuvering can be seen an unfolding Iranian
strategy--the isolation of Iraq. As we have argued over the past few
weeks, Iran is intent on reversing the results of the Iran-Iraq war. They
want to recover the Shatt al-Arab and eliminate the Iraqi threat on their
western borders. With the United States showing no stomach for this
operation, the Iranians have been working to create a regional coalition
for, as they put it, "dealing with weapons of mass destruction." This
should be read as a regional coalition for dealing with Iraq. Having
worked hard, and we believe successfully, to bring Saudi Arabia to their
way of thinking, they are now working to recruit the other critical member
of their coalition--Turkey. Turkey's willingness to participate in
operations against the Kurds in the north is indispensable to any plan to
dismember Iraq. Turkey, hesitant about undertaking such a mission, now has
a promise of Iranian support.
Iran has been working in other ways to increase Iraqi isolation. There are
reports, for example, that Iran has been blocking exports of Iraqi oil,
intercepting small oil barges leaving Iraqi waters. In addition, the
Iranians may well have had a hand in brokering recent meetings between
Syrian and Turkish officials. Syria has been estranged from Turkey over
Turkey's alliance with Israel, while Turkey has been angered by close
Greek-Syrian relations. While we think it unlikely that Turkey will break
with Israel, a cooling of relations is possible, in return for greater
distance between Iran and Iraq.
We continue to see extremely intense Iranian diplomacy moving in the
direction of creating a regional coalition able to control Iraq without
U.S. support. This is a continuing process in which the United States is
losing control of the situation. Iran continues to entice the United
States with offers of informal talks while rejecting formal meetings. This
neutralizes the United States, which is neither willing to act unilaterally
against Iraq, nor willing to intervene against Iranian actions.
The other side of this equation is the deteriorating political situation
inside of Iran. After a period of relative peace, tensions are again
rising between President Khatami's moderates and Ayatollah Khamenei's
conservatives. Indeed, an Iranian cabinet minister was slapped by a
Khamenei follower yesterday in the Majlis, following a debate in which
Khatami's government was charged with laxity in protecting Islamic
security. It needs to be remembered that Khatami's diplomatic maneuvers,
no matter how brilliantly executed, are built on the unsteady base of Iraqi
politics. Each attempt to reach out to Saudi Sunnis and Turkish
secularists increases the instability of the Iranian political system.
At the same time, the promise of a final reckoning with Saddam Hussein is
the glue that holds the system together. Political rivalry in both Saudi
Arabia and Turkey obviously complicate the situation. We nevertheless
continue to feel that, on balance, there is a probability that Iran will
act against Iraq in the near future, although we do not expect this to take
place until after the Hajj is completed.
Regards,
Ron |
