Hi Guys,
I hope you didn't miss me too much. I'm net short now after covering
my long side on open on Friday (after listening to the report and
running some numbers.) Still hold 1000 long, 10 calls short @25, and
10 17.5 puts, all Novembers.
I can't help but get the feeling that the story is now completely
out. Iomega will live or die by the little ZIP drive. (I bought a
6 pack today for cheap...) Forget Comdex.. Nothing is going to happen
at the show... Now, for some thoughts...
What else could Iomega come out with?? All segments are covered.. Let's take a look:
HIGH END: CD-R, CD-RW, networks, Optical, DVD, etc.. What could come
out in this segment that hasn't been done?
MID RANGE: New optical 230, Nimbus drives, etc.. This market segment
ha no volume/interest..
LOW END: ZIP, LS-120... ahh.. This is where the volume is, but what
is Iomega doing? Rebates (is this helping ZIP sales? Seems
like a decline in Q3 to me. )Extended to Q4? I thought that
Q4 was going to be strong, why not gouge the consumer? Subtract OEM sales from Q3, what is left? declining demand from the retail segment. Where are those pesky Jaz revenues? If Jaz revenues where high in Q3, then I'm really
worried.
Now, a reply to mark_b's possible Convex announcements.
1) Some sort of entry into the CD world.
>>> Too late. Already 10+ major players here.. Some with REAL money
2) Kodak related digital camera disk storage.
>>> Good one.. I like this one. I've been doing this at work..
I take a picture with a digital camera, download it to a PC,
then store on a ZIP disk. Don't need a drive in the camera
though.
3) Nintendo compatible disk cartridges.
>>> been thinking about this one... but it just doesn't fit.
copy protection is a BIG problem, cost of drive is huge
compared to the cost of the unit (factory cost on these
units is less than $20.) Zip is too slow for this application.
(cartridges are made of fast FLASH RAM, or ROM. super fast and
cheap (for the reader interface in the game machine).
So I pose the question to all of you... What could come out that
would rocket this stock? (remember, laptop ZIP is already announced.
You can assume that this is factored into the price already.
Last note about OEMs... All of you on this thread think that OEMs are
a great thing. NOT TRUE! OEMs will gouge Iomega for every last penny.
I'd rather see consumer demand increasing.. This is where the margins
are.. These are the people who buys tons of disks.. (They bought the
drive on their own.. they have a true need!) 50% of people probably won't use the bundeled drives.
For those of you who said 'I won't listen to you because you are always wrong' caused me to smile.. I've been wrong about the short term movements of the stock price, but I think I have a good insite
into the computer business, and haven't yet been proved wrong here..
Don't close your minds!!!
Good luck.. (still waiting to be long again..)
kp
P.S. Most of you on this thread are too serious. Lighten up and enjoy
bull's and rocky's posts. These guys add spice where it lacks. |
