Compaq Message Board - Msg: 3764617

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Technology Stocks : Compaq

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To: KELLIS who wrote (22564)	3/19/1998 10:22:00 AM
From: van wang	Read Replies (2) of 97611

I think when we head into earnings season (1/4 to 1/3 into reporting) ...the mkt will hear the comments of mgmt and how long they think this asia fall out will be and the status of the electronics, semi, PC industry...all will be worst than expected....we will test 20s in the during earnings season the other important factor is interest rate...everyone is pricing in rate cut or fall...but we have little margin for error because we are factoring in everything by thinking Asia imports will keep reporting numbers subdued...I think that share prices will rise to a point where any surprises in economic numbers will make people think about risk reward... the Asia import is not all good it will keep companies here from raising prices with wages increasing I think it is a matter of time...6 mos. down the line..if Asia perks up the interest rates will reverse and we will see a large correction...I keep my eyes on oil, labor mkt, asia trade deficit, earnings my opinion is that macro factors drive returns in this mkt ...because it affects valaution, and liquidity

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