I found this as an NIPNY(tic symbol) news release. Gives a lot of good information on the size of the market rambus is going into. One paragraph refers to the "switch to faster chips later this year".
Thursday March 19, 5:50 am Eastern Time
Chip makers gear up for next-generation 64 MB DRAM
By Yuko Inoue
TOKYO, March 19 (Reuters) - Japanese and South Korean chip makers are accelerating their shift into advanced microchips called 64-megabit
DRAMs, with Samsung Electronics Co and NEC Corp [Nasdaq:NIPNY - news] likely to lead the output race at the end of this year, analysts say.
A dark horse is U.S. chip maker Micron Electronics Inc [Nasdaq:MUEI - news] , which in 1997 caused prices of the current mainstay 16-megabit
DRAM (dynamic random access memory) chip to spiral down with its lower production costs.
''Samsung, NEC and possibly Micron are most likely to comprise the top group in the 64-megabit DRAM race, with some like Oki Electric Industry Co
Ltdand Nippon Steel Semiconductor dropping out,'' Naoki Sato, an analyst at HSBC Securities Japan Ltd, said.
Japan's biggest chip maker NEC said on Thursday it would double its production of 64-megabit DRAMs, the main memory of personal computers, to 10
million chips per month by the end of December.
This is to keep pace with its biggest rival Samsung, which has also said it will double output to 10 million units by the end of December.
Second-tier makers -- such as Toshiba Corp , Mitsubishi Electric Corp , Fujitsu Ltd [OTC BB:FJTSY - news] , Hitachi Ltd [NYSE:HIT - news] ,
Hyndai Electronics Industries Co and LG Semicon -- are expected raise their monthly production to around six to eight million units each by that time,
analysts said.
Demand for 16-megabit DRAMs was expected to peak in the April-June quarter of this year.
Japanese makers, bruised by harsh competition which has driven down prices, are shifting to faster and smaller chips to fit into upgraded personal
computers to be launched next summer.
But that may not help avoid a 64-megabit DRAM price-cut race, analysts said.
''Everyone is doing the same. There is not much new in it,'' said Mami Indo, an analyst at Daiwa Institute of Research.
South Korean makers other than Samsung will be slow to come back to the market unless they can quickly boost investment in the 0.25 micron etching
technology required for advanced 64-megabit DRAM chips, SBC Warburg Japan analyst Yoshiharu Izumi said.
''South Korean makers are having a hard time acquiring the latest chip production equipment because of the economic crisis and may face difficulties in
terms of being competitive price-wise,'' he said.
Analysts expect the price of a 64-megabit DRAM chip to fall to around $13 by the end of December from the current $15.
Because of the severe competition, only those makers which have strong PC or mainframe computer brands which consume a large volume of chips will
be able to survive the DRAM race, said HSBC's Sato.
''For the next-generation 256-mega chips, there will be makers which will be faced with the decision of quitting the business,'' Sato said.
Mitsubishi Electric and Oki earlier said they would limit their spending for mass-production of general-use 256-mega DRAMs to a ''minimum,'' shifting
emphasis to custom-made chips. |
