North American Vaccine Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : North American Vaccine

NVX 1.280

-9.2%

9:42 AM EST

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To: andy harrison who wrote (25)	10/22/1996 1:07:00 AM
From: Don W Stone	of 82

On NVX and the next week:Most of the people I know who have been following NVX for some time now and are long are sitting on the side lines waiting for the news that will come on Oct 29th that will attract new buying and drive the stock to a new level ( mid 30's or better IMHO). Now that is how I account for the low level of activity in the stock over the past many trading days. Do you ,Andy, attribute todays activity to the shorts? Most of it happened in the late afternoon on relatively low volume. I know you do a good job of keeping up with this type of information. Tell me ; IF THE SHORTS FELT THAT THE OUTCOME OF THE MEETING ON THE 29th WOULD FAVOR THEM, WHY WOULDN'T THEY BE TRYING TO DRIVE THE PRICE OF THE STOCK UP SO THEY COULD SHORT MORE AT A HIGHER LEVEL? Instead what we have seen is a short effort to drive the price down for the past many months.Of late an outright "STRONG SELL" recommendation. Why? to increase the supply so they can cover before the big event happens that drives the stock to new levels? I personally have never shorted a stock so maybe I am asking the wrong questions. I must say I have arrived at a new investment rule:"THE MORE NOISE THE SHORTS HAVE TO MAKE , THE LESS LIKELY THEY ARE RIGHT". dstone10/96 or :"short" noise is inversely proportional to "short" accuracy. :-) Now so as not to be entirely misunderstood; what one says to support a short position recommendation for the benefits of ones newsletter subscribers is not the noise I am talking about. The noise I refer to is when such information is broadcast( mass distributed) in an attempt to gain the desired activity in the stock and precludes the event which may or may not happen. I must say that if one is comtemplating adding to their position this is the time in my opinion. Why? well here is one real vote of confidence that would support such action.. Just the other week Abbott entered into their $42 million definitive marketing agreement with NVX and paid $13 million upfront. Abbott could have pushed it back a few weeks I am sure but they didn't. Now, they surely know more about the situation and possible outcomes better than you or I or the shorts for that matter , ever will.IMHO. :-}

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