Thomas, you are not alone in being unable to place a value on this company. Even those involved in the day-to-day operations of CXI (and CXOT) no doubt have trouble doing that.
I'd say there are some issues that need to be settled, to get a handle of the valuation, such as:
1. Does the SET process "work"? A - apparently, yes.
2. Can CXI "partner" with larger companies, in this business? A - They have.
3. Can CXI and its partners win contracts? A- Yes, they have so far.
4. Can CXI and its partners turn a profit, with SET? A - Who knows?
5. Will CXI face competitors in the future, who offer similar capabilities to SET? A - Who knows?
6. What will CXI's stake in CXOT ultimately be worth? A - Again, unknown.
7. How much more dilution will we see in CXI shares? A - It is possible to estimate this, but the exact level of future dilution is not precisely known.
8. What is the size of CXI's (and CXOT's) target market? A - Not precisely known, but considered to be in the $10's of billions.
With all of this, I consider CXI to be a speculative buy, could ultimately worth anything from a 100% loss to a ten-bagger or more. Now that the latest round of speculation seems to be ending, it may take some actual numbers to move the stock. Then again, speculation may continue to drive the price wildly, in the absence of "harder" data. |
