Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets!

LRCX 144.54

-2.0%

10:57 AM EST

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To: Robert Douglas who wrote (5017)	3/19/1998 2:32:00 PM
From: Ramsey Su	Read Replies (1) of 10921

Robert, "Since the title of this thread includes the old saw about blood running in the streets, my question would be to each of you, has the market discounted all this bad news already? " This is obviously the big question. I have no answer but there was an interview on CNBC with someone from First Call that I found interesting. (I was not paying full attention so don't toast me if I mis-stated the message) First Call said earnings pre-warning so early is alarming. The analysts have already downgraded growth rate from about 12% before to just over 1% for the first qtr of 1998. This is also very alarming. Furthermore, the second qtr is expected to be more of same. The bullishness, however, can come from the fact that everyone is expecting full recovery by the last two qtrs of the year. He said that the growth rate for the last qtr of 1998 is now pegged at around 19%. (regarding this growth rate, I can only assume he is talking about the entire market and not the DOW or S&P) Needless to say, if the street concensus holds true, this could be huge buy opportunity for not only the semi-eq but just about anything else, assuming the market is going to sky-rocket by year end. On the other hand, I personally find it hard to share this optimism. The analysts may be choosing the wait-and-see attitude. I remember AMAT saying that they are clueless as to what Asia is going to do for 1998. That has to be the most honest statement from any company this year. Today's trade figures are puzzling. As expected, the trade gap widens against Korea and Indonesia. Japan, however, actually has a reduction in trade deficit. How can that be? I gave it a lot of thought this morning and found no answer. It certainly can't be because we over estimated Japan's financial woes? Ramsey

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