Dave, my problem with trading has been this; I try to buy low and try to sell on a peak, but end up buying back higher as the trend continues. Sometimes I buy lower than I sold if I'm lucky...but still I make money. Sounds O.K. but it would have been better if I had just held. Well, here comes the problem. I am so convinced of the long term trend and fundamentals I ignore my losses as they stack up when the stock starts to drop. I buy a bit more convinced of the upward trend. But then...
Check this history out with CDG (adjusted for split):
B Early 1997 @ 29/ S @ 32 in March
B Late March @ 33/ S @ 43 in July
B Late July @ 49/ S @ 52 in August
B Mid August @ 45/ S @ 48 in late August
B Early Sept @ 58/ S @ 63 five days later
B Mid Sept @ 62/ S @ 66 late October
B Late Oct @63/ S @ 77 early November
Made lots of good money!
NOW THE FUN PART...
I buy back in 73, 66, 58, 48....well, you get the picture.
I was able to use the loss on CDG Monday to help with my hopeful gains this year when exchanging for NE, FGII, and GLM, but that isn't the way to take money. Now that everyone on the planet knows how stupid I was in my trading behavior you can understand where I am coming from when I talk about luck, trading, and fundamentals.
That said, the fundamental picture has not changed and the case for the sector is even better than it was when I bought CDG at $70+.
-Moral I: Buy and hold makes more money than trading for most of us mortals.
-Moral II: It's hard to mow the lawn, smile with the kids, and cook great meals when you're always worried about if you are going to make the right timing move.
-Moral III: Capital loss is one of the best ways to get to know your company. I've got more material on oil drilling at home than can be found at the Petroleum Institute!
Diamond H |
