David, I'll check on the Micrascan issue. A few other things to note:
1. I, too, spoke to IR and received about the same response as you.
I confirm they will spend some additional time on optics and that they cannot do too much until they receive an order since the optics need to be customized for each customer's specs. IR told me SVG can't look out more than 6 months - exactly the result of lack of concrete orders.
2. Re: orders
(a) from Asia, SVG will not gain from this area (expectation was they would have that one Korean order). What was not factored, but hoped for, was additional customers in Asia. So, apparently they've lost an opportunity for significant growth. ie reduce growth rate expectation on SVG.
(b) from US, there were orders cancelled
(a)+(b) expected to be 20, but likely to be 15 (matches to the 25% sales reduction figure)
3. Future orders from Asia: IF the market factored in some additional sales from Asia (beyond that one Korean order), then SVG could fall further since these are NOT expected to occur in 1998.
ie. can count on this not occuring in '98 given that even if an order is placed, machine will not be built by year end and not form '98 revenues.
I hope you can see my concern about SVG from the facts I've uncovered.
Sure SVG will remain in business, but the growth rate, which gets thrown into the Disounted Cash Flow model for calculating the value of a company, is not increasing, and in fact is declining.
I'll try to find out more about the Micrascans. I was told not to focus on that so much when looking at the co. Seems fairly reliable source thus far.
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