Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: dwight vickers who wrote (21251)	3/19/1998 4:19:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (2) of 42771

(Off Topic) Cyclical Fed effort Ah but the reason it was a cyclical Fed effort was the fear of inflation during any economic expansion! Greenspan was very late coming to the conclusion that the inflation wasn't something to be concerned about. The word deflation was barely mentioned until last Summer. When he finally became convinced it was time to look at the expansion of monetary aggregates the potential market collapse forced him to back off---they never went through with the second rate increase last year and then it was potentially too dangerous given the uncertainty of the Asia situation. So you see it has now become potentially dangerous to do anything. The Fed isn't steering the boat. Nobody is steering the boat. The Fed is a very crude form of "central planning", like steering a ship by using an oar rather than a rudder. Certainly the Feds were not the ones who brought interest rates down on 30 year treasuries during the Asia liquidity scare and initiated the current housing/mortgage refinancing debt boomlet. They completely lost control of the situation to the bond market. My own feeling is Greenspan has few allies and he will now need verifiable proof of inflation of some sort, such as wage push or in the core rate, before he can move to increase rates again, even though the credit expansion says tighten. I still believe the Fed is biased toward an increase but will only move when it is too late. As to the other forms of draining liquidity from the system available at this point, you might want to elaborate. =================== Is it is too late for the soft landing? If the Asia effect doesn't do Greenspan's work for him, then what are his options!!! Tighten and cause a stock market collapse or loosen and blow-up the bubble to DOW 10000.

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