Byron:
In my view (and again this is just my humble opinion so take it for what is its worth), I continue to think the current valuations in high techs is simply a bubble to burst any day now. I wished I knew how large these bubbles get so I can sneak in there myself, but a bubble will always be a bubble! Market at this time is going up strictly based on the money flow. Unemployment is at its lowest in decades and with most Americans working, one thing that is on their mind is to save, and to invest. Mutual funds, and 401Ks are the most popular vehicles for saving and investing. However, at some point the valuations must and will catch up to the stock prices.
From CPQ, INTC, to ROK, VLSI, to DS, AMD,... all have pre-announced short falls in their earnings, and yet the market in most part has ignored that. As for SUNW, Sun never gives pre-announced warnings, and who knows they may end up meeting the earnings estimates after all (although I doubt it very much). The slow down of the next 1-2 quarters (at least) due to Asia and Y2K will have a negative impact on the stock prices of all high techs. I continue to think SUNW will come back down to the $33-$38 range sometime by the end of May. I continue to be 65% cash, and just about 35% in stocks. But then again this is just my opinion and I have proven to be wrong many times in the past!
Regards,
Addi Jamshidi |
