Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 235.24

+4.5%

Nov 19 3:59 PM EST

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To: Laker who wrote (17896)	3/19/1998 5:14:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (1) of 70976

dallas semiconductor pre announces -very cautious. the problem i see is people think this is quick downturn in semi's that in a quarter everything is fine. again, we are not at the bottom and nobody knows how bad it could get. its very concerning that companies 3 months ago were stating that asia was bad but that was offset by demands in europe in asia. now we are hearing asia stinks but america and europe are slowly getting worse. in my opinion you will see a outright panic in technology when institions finally realize that things are not picking but are increasingly getting worse. my experience with semi's is never buy when visibilty is unclear because that just a signal from management that things are not looking good, i see amat first quarter 52 cents, second quarter 37 cents, third quarter lowered to 11cents , fourth quarter-? 16 cents. looking for 1.27 for the year- the fair value for amat probably aroubd 2xsales and maybe 23-26 dollers. conversely, SEMICONDUCTOR STOCKS USUALLY GO TO HIGH DURING BOOMS AND GOES WAY TO LOW DURING DOWNTURNS. just an opinion. as soundview financial stated semiconductor stocks usually bottom out at 1xsales during downturns . thats a fact. at 2x sales amat 22-24. still short- my new short is broderbund software(brod) eps are march 25 and i think you will see a disater. also , started shorting the software stocks today -arbor software(arsw) 46dollers. 50pe, massive insider selling-DSO 'S increasing. BAANF-49

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