As of today, both March 30 puts and March 35 calls are out of money. Therefore if there is any manipulation, the manipulator shouldn't worry about these two options. The manipulator needs to work on March 30 calls and March 35 puts, both of them are in the money. The open interest for March 30 calls is 8953 and 7838 for March 35 puts. At what price, the MMs have to pay the least? Apparently the lower the price towards 30, the less the MMs have to pay. Let's look why:
Assume ASND will stay between 30 and 35, i.e, 30+x, and the MMs have to pay:
7838*(5-x) + 8953*x = 39190 + 1115X.
My computation would indicate that if x=0, the MMs would pocket the most of the money. Therefore, if there's any manipulation, there should be downward pressure tomorrow.
My computation could be wrong, please comments. Thanks,
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