Beware!
It's not triple witching you have to worry about.
The weakness today in Checkfree stock is probably due mainly to expectations that Citibank is preparing to join the MSFT venture, contributing both capital and it's archaic billpay processing platform. Some large investors may be rushing to beat the news and the attendant public fanfare. If so, those of you waiting to get a buying opportunity may get it it soon. It may also be the last one you will get for quite a while.
If the rumors are true, the sooner the news gets out, the better. That's because the market will know how to deal with the news after it's out, but buyers will hold off waiting to see how the market deals with it.
According to people I know who have used both, the Checkfree service is superior to the Citibank service. Nevertheless, it does put MSFT in the billpay business, although demonstrating that MSFT never had a billpay capability as they would have had potential customers believe.
If these events take place, the battle lines will have been drawn and major uncertainties removed from the industry and from the stock market. It's the uncertainty of the unknown that spooks most investors. I would expect the banking industry would see the new combination as their enemy and those who haven't already done so, will flock to the Integrion consortium. The Checkfree billpay is way ahead of what Citibank has to offer and Intuit's Quicken front end is beating Microsoft's front end hands down.
I think we have the better team and better field position. I would expect to hear IBM and the major banks getting more vocal. They have to.
I have encouraged Checkfree management to use this opportunity to initiate a stock buyback program to offset some of the shares previously issued for options, corporate acquisitions, and now for Integrion warrants. It's their decision, but at least we have their ear.
I wish some of the large institutional investors who own Checkfree stock were as loyal to the company as most of the people on this thread.
The investment report previously displayed is an excellent job and accurate, in my opinion. |
