I've done my own test to see where the options expiration theory is
leading us for tomorrow. I created a chart that shows the open
interest for each series of option expiring in March, and projected
the net payout to the option writers at exercise. Here is what I
found:
ASND Price Payout
29 8,648,800
29.5 7,959,550
29.9375 7,356,413
30 7,270,250
30.0625 7,282,419
30.5 7,367,600
31 7,464,950
31.5 7,562,300
32 7,659,650
32.5 7,757,000
33 7,854,350
33.5 7,951,700
34 8,049,050
34.5 8,146,400
35 8,243,750
35.5 9,660,100
36 11,076,450
Clearly, we can see that in the interest of those with the outstanding
written option positions, their preferred price is 30. If not 30,
then as low a price above 30 as possible - since 30.5 is preferable to
29.5.
Here is the entire chart for those who are interested:
Calls Strike OI Profit @ Price Puts Strike OI Profit @ Price
QQACD 20 309 3090 QQAOD 20 3040 0
QQACX 22.5 387 2902.5 QQAOX 22.5 1715 0
QQACE 25 1872 9360 QQAOE 25 4764 0
QQACF 30 8953 0 QQAOF 30 6780 0
QQACG 35 18542 0 QQAOG 35 7838 39190
QQACH 40 12209 0 QQAOH 40 1612 16120
QQACI 45 4333 0 QQAOI 45 90 1350
QQACJ 50 1930 0 QQAOJ 50 32 640
QQACK 55 941 0 QQAOK 55 2 50
QQACL 60 1310 0 QQAOL 60 0 0
Total Call 15352.5 Put 57350
Net Total 72702.5
Price - ASND 30
Make of this what you will. However, I believe this pressure is not
very strong - the difference between 30 and 35 is less than
$1,000,000. (or 200,000 shares)
Chris
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