The following represents a political analysis of current events in China:
Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
March 20, 1998
Chinese Leadership Reshuffle Offers no Respite for Dissidents
In an open letter to new Chinese Premier Zhu Rongji, distributed on
Wednesday by the Hong Kong-based Information Center of Human Rights and
Democratic Movement in China, 12 Chinese dissidents from eastern Zhejiang
province demanded that Zhu use his new power to institute greater
individual freedoms and create a constitutional democracy in China. A
chief architect of China's moves toward a mixed market economy, Zhu
recently replaced Li Peng as Premier, when Li became Chairman of the
National People's Congress (NPC).
(http://www.stratfor.com/services/gintel/region/stories/030698.html)
Despite Zhu's credentials as an economic reformer, the prospects for a
shift to greater freedom and democracy in China are currently very slim.
On Thursday, rights groups in China reported to Agence France Presse on a
new crackdown on Chinese dissidents, including five detentions, an arrest,
and a disappearance. According to AFP's sources, veteran dissident Fan
Yiping was arrested on March 16 in Guangzhou for allegedly spreading
leaflets from the U.S.-based China Democracy and Justice Party. Three
other Guangzhou dissidents reportedly were also temporarily detained for
questioning for involvement with the China Democracy and Justice Party.
Dissidents in Fujian and Hunan were also temporarily detained in the past
week, while computer engineer Lin Lianjun disappeared on March 17 after
installing computers for dissidents in Fujian. Four additional dissidents
were arrested in early March for calling for political reforms in open
letters to the NPC.
Pressured by China's economic downturn, which was already underway before
the Asia-wide economic crisis hit and has only been exacerbated since,
China's leaders are in no position to launch new political reforms. Quite
the contrary, as China's economic crisis accelerates into an internal
political crisis--pitting the Interior against the Coast and both against
Beijing--we can only expect greater repression from Beijing.
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