Dear Ian.... its a funny old world isn't it... I with the most bullish projection for december 31st 1999 am continually referred to by u as a bear....
For the avoidance of doubt..... I am a long term bull and a short term bear. I am not a "watch the stock go down because one day it will be worth more" type. I am a "buy cheap and sell when I don't get the valuation anymore" type. That is my MO. And that his what drives my view of the world. The purpose in challenging u to the duel in the parking lot... as u chose to characterize it, was not to start a "pissing contest" (ask robbie... our contest has not developed in that way at all... in fact it takes place in private, and I am considering investment in one of his selections for my own account) but to illustrate the differences in our approach and see how in the real world our different ways of looking at the world make out. It seemed valid to me. There was nothing more to it than that.
To me the fundamental in the amat equation has little to do with amat's wonderful micro position... but the lousy macro world it is battling in right now.
I have stated these concerns until I am blue in the face and it seems pointless to restate them again... but I will say that IMO the bottom will have been reached only after significant consolidation has taken place in both the semi equip and the semi industries... as capacity has to be taken out of the system. I believe that this eventually will happen as a result of the sea lack-of-liquidity situation... nobody, not even the imf, is going to lend money for sea manu's to overproduce at a loss, because the funding would be never-ending. I also believe that a real fix for japan, will involve bankrupcy and consolidation as waste and coruption is squeezed out of that system. further I think that we shall have to see how msft's game of chicken with justice pans out before we know how close to the bottom we are. and we shall have to see is the pc channel stuffing depresses prices and intc, for more than a couple of q's.... i am listening to a cpq radio comercial right now for a business system with a free monitor for 1299....
it might be useful to make the point, at this juncture, that I do not say that at these levels amat is expensive... but that given the risks it is not cheap. and I do not buy fairly valued stocks, I buy when there has been a market over-reaction. to me Oxhp is cheap. Slb is cheap. and amat will be cheap when the bright future is in greater doubt. if that day has already passed then I will admit I was wrong and buy north of here, but I doubt it... problems put to one side, seldom vanish.
While I disagree with a lot you say, it is the the way with which u say it that I find offensive.
what does a phrase like this accomplish, "After reading the nonsense and 'twisting' of posts by you (teri - our resident info guru) and Aki, it would appear that this thread is the one you're looking for." - honestly I would never think of twisting any of your posts... you do the job for all of us... |
