Doug,
Further on China's extractive riches I was surprised to find the following clip from an interesting paper. Seems that China will be a net importer of oil.
For the whole view go to: fas.org
The article has some interesting comments about business conduct in a historical context in China.
As economies develop around the globe, the demand for oil will likewise increase. For China, which only has about 2.4 percent of the world's total oil and gas reserves, future sources of energy supplies are going to be a key factor in its continued ability to sustain economic development as it feeds and supports 1.2 billion people, as it experiences the automotive revolution, as it meets the demand for expanded air travel, and as it engages in energy-intensive manufacturing. According to recent estimates, China's net external requirement for oil imports is expected to rise from the current daily level of 600,000 barrels, to 1 million by 2000, 3 million by 2010, and 7 million barrels per day by 2015.51 During the next 15 years, East Asian oil imports from the Middle East could easily triple. In the face of the expected demand, China is interested in securing its future supplies.
It is believed that China's concerns regarding its future energy supplies is also influencing many of its foreign policy decisions. For example, its 1992 announced sovereignty claims to about 80 percent of the South China Sea and its use of military forces to reinforce that claim are clearly aimed at securing oil and gas supplies.53 Although the dispute over the Spratly Island area seems to be cooling somewhat (possibly due to ASEAN diplomacy and Chinese realization that drilling operations would take place in water 2,000-meters deep--deeper than current drilling technology supports), China has indicated that it would accept the provisions of international law and the Law of the Sea Convention to settle the dispute over the Spratly Islands. Nevertheless, this region still holds the potential for conflict if oil supplies tighten during the next century and drilling technology advances sufficiently to make feasible the extraction of these deposits. |
