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Biotech / Medical : ChemTrak

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To: r q lad who wrote (33)10/22/1996 1:59:00 PM
From: Kip518   of 48
 
r q lad,
The report says that the cholestrol test was their primary source of income and, you are correct, that in the 3rd quarter total revenues were $583k. I would assume that your drugstore has a markup so, without knowing the net, we can't say exactly how many kits were sold. However, if we assume a 20% markup, it would still only be about 68,000 kits. The company's announcement of hiring a new ad agency and commencing a big ad campaign indicates that they are trying to stimulate more demand.

If you are troubled by the size of the demand, consider that they reported $2,195K as the 9 month revenues. If revenues were flat that would mean each quarter would have $732K in revenue. Thus, given last quarter's revenue was $149k below that number, it appears that in fact sales have been declining over this period. Hence, CMTR really does need to get going to stimulate demand.

My guess is that J&J dropped the product because they found much less demand than expected, even though they advertised fairly heavily. Given that cholestrol levels are supposed to be a common concern, this is puzzling.

Ron
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