Well I posted real numbers and the references to where I got them from
So why not start with some real numbers?
Novell user loyalty put to the test
By Christine Burns
Network World, 3/16/98
How much longer can Novell, Inc. count on user loyalty as its weapon of choice in the battle against Microsoft?
Perhaps not as long as Novell officials might hope. There is a
growing body of anectodal evidence which indicates that a good
portion of Novell's 70 million or so users are hesitant about
spending money on new Novell software.
For example, for the first time since NT debuted in 1993, new unit
shipments of NT beat out new NetWare unit shipments in 1997, according to International Data Corp., a research firm in Framingham, Mass. While IDC determined that the overall server
operating system market grew by 10.8% from 1996 to 1997, Novell
shipments declined by 9.4% in that same time frame.
''Novell is losing the tight grasp it used to have over its installed base,'' said Neil MacDonald, a research director with Stamford, Conn.-based Gartner Group, Inc. He estimated that as high as 25% of Novell users are looking for a move toward NT. NOS sales will have a far-reaching effect on the success of most other Novell products because they depend on either NetWare or Novell Directory Services (NDS) to work, MacDonald said.
And in an informal survey of 50 Network World readers who also
identified themselves as longtime Novell customers, one-third
said they aren't buying as much Novell software as they've done in
the past. Only half are looking to upgrade their servers to Novell's
next generation of NetWare. And 28% said they won't be buying
any more Novell products at all.
The survey data flies in the face of recent Wall Street predictions
that Novell is turning the corner due to a streamlined workforce,
two profitable quarters and a ramped-up product delivery
schedule (NW, March 2, 1998, page 1).
Users interviewed for the Network World survey don't deny Novell its fundamental strengths. In fact, many were intrigued by new Novell products like NDS for NT, BorderManager and the yet to be released ZENWorks, an NDS-enabled desktop management suite.
And Novell officials contend its network operating system shipments have already increased this year. Two-thirds of its 1998 first-quarter sales were new NetWare sales.
However, officials could not say if they sold these servers into new or existing accounts.
Longtime Novell customer Hallmark Cards, Inc., in Kansas City, Mo., is not letting loyalty hold it back from looking at NT 5.0 as an upgrade path for its 60 NetWare 4.X servers. ''My responsibility is to be unbiased and look at the best product for the company regardless of
the vendor,'' said Dan Blevins, a technical analyst with Hallmark.
Blevins doesn't consider NT 4.0 robust enough to replace NetWare's enterprise-level file, print and management duties. ''But NT 5.0, once Microsoft gets the kinks worked out of the directory service, could be something we go to in the future,'' Blevins said.
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You need to go to nwfusion (see Joe's post of the URL) for the actual charts containing the numbers. I recommend it. |
