Paul; Somehow you just gave me an idea, this eve I'm going to do
a random scan of stock options a sort of dart board survey,
without punching in any I've been tracking or even looking at
their trend..what I'll be trying to size up is just how many
put/call open interest expire worthless..
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I know on SI the option talk is predominatly towards buying
puts..at least what I've run into..sure there is some call
talk..but nothing as much as put talk..personally my experance
shows me more money is in buying calls. Maybe it's the angle
I've look at things that has made my call bets pay off better
than my put bets, for sure I bet both ways now, but was also
under the put buying spell for some time until I got tired
of losing money and tried a few calls, lo and behold the
calls started hitting pay dirt..
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I'm not hung up on them and bet a lot less on options
than I once did, I toss out all but what I consider the
ones with extreamly good odds ( that being just out of the money
ones that have already sold a big glob at much higher prices,
were I'm exploiting the pain thoes suckers feel , and the
tendancy for them to grab at a straw, if the stock reverses
they try to average down on their options. )
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In short all the other option hype aside you find a gang of
lossers and get in well under them..that is the option that
offers the best odds of moving enough to make money and over
come all the skewed spreads of the floor traders, and the
commissions. ) Another way of saying it..is that option will
move more in price for a move in the stock price than the one
on the other side of the money. If it has more losers in it,
be it a call or put. I use to wonder when say a call or put
out of the money but on equal sides of the strike, did not
always move percentage wise the same with moves in the stock,
and sometimes it was a lot. I conclude it's the "market OI we are
dealing in." each one has it's own market supply/demand and as
with any option trade it's like para-mutual betting,
Here my old race track experance kicked in and I began to see
the light, and the hidden "tote" board.
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I might not should say this but I will take any one to the
dog track by the hand and let them watch me lay bets..
and give me 3 full programs..and bet them any amout they
want that out of the bets I lay over the three (12 race)
events I will make at least 5%..( average is 15% )
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You might say well why don't I just live at the race track?
well the way I bet ( needing odds ) I might only bet 1 to
5 races out of each event..rarely do I get enoung odds to
bet 6 races. Then when I do get the odds..because of how
para-mutual betting works if I bet my high odds very heavy
I kill the odds on the "tote" board to were I no longer
have the good odds..so the amount one can bet is very limited
with out shooting yourself in the foot.
My system can let me win (just playing in the win pool) about 200
to 300 a week , more than that it breaks down. Other expence
and the time it takes makes it only good for recreation..
as I live a long way from the track, to lay off track bets is
no good as the local bookies want a 10% cut of winnings
and that just about would kill it, on top of that when they see
me getting ahead they then jump on my bets enough to upset
the balance. On one hand I get a little charge out of knowing
that when I leave the track I at least beat 85% of the crowd
on most days..it sure cost me a bundle before I learned to
play the "tote" board, ( the crowd is what you need to bet
against ) but only when they miss or "over bet some favorets,
to under bet a good one )
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Being I've gone this far I'l add I did all the handicaping
styles there is, and can pick about as many winners as the
next good handicapper..but picking winners don't cut it
if you don't get odds. It takes a long time for most people
to learn when to pass up a sure thing.
My style now at the track is much more relaxed and most pros
would laugh at it..I don't over handicap the dogs
any more, I mostly just use the silly morning line picks..but wait
till the crowd leaves one of them going off at double or better
the moring line odds. There is much more to this than I'v got
time to explain but armed with all the handicapping books,
I did notice they all tend to do a top down style, but if
you do a bottom up you find there is a random factor that
no one can account for, and the best of the top down systems
miss that, and it's why you need better odds than the crowd
is generally willing to let go of, but they do at times, here
locally Sat night and the joe six pks makes for the better
times to go.
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How I managed to work this into my style of playing options
is hard to explain and could take a book. But untill I did
I didn't win at options, and looking at the amount that expired
in the past I'm sure that 80 to 85% of he option players
are losers..as I discovered that I felt a little better,
but had enongh sense to back off, and toss all the books on
systems away, and develope my own. I have not lost an option
bet in better than 9 months now. ( but i don't make many )
As good as WDCDW looked the other day, I passed it up..no
regrets even though it won nicely..I wanted better odds
and didn't get them. You can't let the shouldacouldawoulda
bother you and still stick with a system that works.
I did all the doggones and ifihada stuff just for show,
but I was serious about not posting any more likely winners
untill after I lay my bet..I know there are 20 lukers for
every writer on SI..and can't help but wonder the way that
damm thing run up if some one didn't do to me what the off
track bookies do when they see you winning.
Jim
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