WH, we all know that tracking institutional ownership is not easy. Peter bases his on the information he finds, but that information may be very old. By the time you see a 13G or proxy showing the 5% owners, the info is ancient. Stogey's link was to the Baseline report which is available through many of the online brokers, but you must go through your broker's web site. I did that and it does, in fact, say 4%. Have you considered that Koogle was simply quoting some figure that may have been true at some past reporting date, but may not be true now? Have you considered that Fidelity and other institutions may have been playing the momentum/short squeeze game and were selling into the squeeze? Gee, I wonder if Fidelity has ever done that before.
As for the growth rate of earnings, what would you suggest investors look at other than the consensus of all the analysts that have been recommending this stock during your joyous ride upward? Yes, the CURRENT growth rate may be several hundred percent, but prudent investors would look at long-term sustainable growth. That's why I started with this year's projected 37 cents rather than trailing earnings to apply that oh so conservative 70 PE. Growth after this year is expected to be about 78% next year and then averaging about 70% for the 3-5 year period (after that, it's likely to be much lower BTW).
Personally, I think that automatically applying a PEG ratio of 1:1 is nonsense, but I haven't heard anyone make a rational argument for using 3.3:1 which is what it would be if we were now in 1999 looking back at trailing earnings of 37 cents and forward to 70% 3-5 year growth on a price of $85. On this 1:1 PEG ratio basis, YHOO is now trading at 227% above fair value 9 1/2 months out.
Anyway, unless you are accusing Baseline of fudging the numbers or being simply unreliable (for which I would expect you to provide some evidence), you might want to consider the possibility that they are right about the institutional ownership and long-term growth outlook.
Regards,
Bob |
