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Strategies & Market Trends : Tech Stock Options
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To: Nemer who wrote (37059)3/20/1998 12:32:00 PM
From: Stoctrash  Read Replies (1) of 58727
 
Food for thought on NAZ vs Sp500 relative strength:
I ran a little backtest to see what the odds of the "market" making any progress while the NAZ Composite was either strong or weak. So far here's what I got:

9/1/88 - 3/18-98
NAZ Composite buy and hold = 379%

I played with a few moving averages on the the ratio of Naz/Sp500 relative strenght chart to get this output. (You would Buy the Naz Comp. Index when its stronger and step aside when its not.)

btw SRV is positive but not strong.
Need a trading rage so it can be used with high confidence.

Pure Trading return = 337% (not bad)
Risk = 56% of the time (very good)
If you went to Money Market when you were "out" = 459% (Very Good)
With ~4.2 round trips/year.

Now...what if we could have gone short when we were "out"?????

BTW..this gizzmo went on a sell on 3/9,......fwiw.
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