Clark,
Re: "In January, the last month for which there is data, there was a
30% growth in unit sales."
Do you still have your source on this. I ask because I haven't seen
that figure cited recently. I found this about PC unit growth.
IDC Forecasts Solid 13 Percent Worldwide PC Unit Growth in 1998
U.S. Growth Pegged at 15 Percent; Asia/Pacific & Japan Sluggish at Seven Percent
MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif., March 11 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite more tumultuous
market conditions, International Data Corp.(IDC) expects the 1998 global
personal computer market to grow 13 percent and reach unit volume of
90.6 million. Solid demand for PCs in regions such as the United States,
Western Europe and Latin America continue to offset major weakness in many
Asian markets, according to new IDC forecasts.
The 13.4 percent 1998/97 worldwide unit growth rate represents a decline
from the 1997 market, which achieved growth of 15.2 percent and 79.9 million
units. IDC believes 1998 will be a tumultuous year of transitions for all
vendors. "The range and depth of current market changes point to a profound
shift in industry business models, concentration of power, distribution
strategies and product mix," said Bruce Stephen, IDC's group vice president of
worldwide personal systems research.
The U.S. market is expected to show good demand in 1998 with vendor
shipments* hitting 36.3 million and experiencing 15.4 percent growth -- a
modest decline from the 1997/96 expansion of 19 percent. IDC expects the U.S.
market to be driven by the strong economy and expansion of the low-cost PC
market into more product categories. Western Europe is forecast to show
continued robustness this year with 13.8 percent growth and volume of
22.1 million. As such, Western Europe becomes a more pivotal growth area,
offsetting growth rate declines in Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan).
In contrast, the outlook for Asia/Pacific continues to weaken, driven by
economic problems that have battered much of the region. Coming off
16.5 percent growth in 1997, IDC expects shipments in 1998 to grow at a
sluggish 6.9 percent as volume reaches slightly more than 11 million units.
This major growth decline is based on a very weak outlook for Korea and many
ASEAN countries offsetting continued strength in China, India, and Taiwan.
Japan is expected to improve following a market downturn in 1997. Vendor
shipments in Japan are expected to increase 7.3 percent to 8.5 million driven
by an expected renewed consumer interest in the second half of this year when
prices are expected to fall driven by heightened activity in the $1,000 PC
market by U.S.-based vendors.
The combined Rest-of-World (ROW) geographies, comprised of Canada, Latin
America, East Central/Eastern Europe (EECE) and the Mediterranean, and Middle
East Africa (MMEA) area, are projected to reach more than 12.5 million units
on growth of 18 percent. Growth in ROW will be led by Latin America.
Vendors
IDC continues to believe the shift toward lower prices and more efficient
business models favors the largest vendors, who have broader product lines and
geographical scope. This group of vendors continues to gain share on the
total market and increasingly looks to take share from each other,
particularly in the more lucrative commercial market. As a group Compaq, IBM,
H-P and Dell gained more than five percent market share points in the 1997
worldwide PC market (see table below).
Table 1
Top 5 Vendors, US PC Shipments, 1997 (Thousands of Units)
1997 Vendor 1997 Market 1996 Market Growth
Rank Shipments ShareShipments Share 1997/96
1 Compaq 5,035 16.0% 3,417 12.9% 47%
2 Dell 2,930 9.3% 1,790 6.8% 64%
3 Packard Bell NEC 2,776 8.8% 3,030 11.4% -8%
4 IBM 2,739 8.7% 2,196 8.3% 25%
5 Gateway 2000 2,219 7.1% 1,667 6.3% 33%
Others 15,778 50.1% 14,378 31.1% 10%
All Vendors 31,478 100.0% 26,480 100.0% 19%
* Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end-users. Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods
Data for Packard Bell NEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, NEC, and ZDS Data for Gateway includes ALR
Source: International Data Corporation, 1998
Table 2 Top 5 Vendors, Worldwide PC Shipments, 1997 (Thousands of Units)
1997 Vendor 1997 Market 1996 Market Growth
Rank Shipments ShareShipments Share 1997/96
1 Compaq 10,146 12.7% 7,211 10.4% 41%
2 IBM 7,226 9.0% 6,175 8.9% 17%
3 Dell 4,716 5.9% 2,986 4.3% 57%
4 Hewlett-Packard 4,468 5.6% 2,984 4.3% 50%
5 Packard Bell NEC 4,173 5.2% 4,230 6.1% -1%
Others 49,155 61.5% 45,724 66.0% 8%
All Vendors 79,886 100.0% 69,321 100.0% 15%
* Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end-users
Data for all vendors are reported for calendar periods
Data for Packard Bell NEC includes shipments for Packard Bell, ZDS, and NEC outside of Japan and China
Data for Gateway includes ALR
Source: International Data Corporation, 1998
About IDC Headquartered in Framingham, Mass., International Data Corporation provides IT market research and consulting to more than 3,900 high-technology customers around the world. With a global network of 375 analysts in more than 40 countries, IDC is the industry's most comprehensive resource on worldwide IT markets, products, vendors, and geographies.
IDC/LINK, an IDC subsidiary, researches and analyzes the home computing market, leading-edge technologies in telecommunications and new media, and the convergence of computing and consumer electronics.
IDC's World Wide Web site ( idc.com ) contains additional
company information and recent news releases, and offers full-text searching of recent research.
IDC is a division of International Data Group, the world's leading IT
media, research and exposition company.
All product and company names may be trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders.
* Vendor shipments are branded shipments and exclude OEM sales for all vendors and represent shipments to distribution channels or direct to end-users.
SOURCE International Data Corporation
CO: International Data Corporation; International Data Group
ST: Massachusetts
IN: CPR MLM
SU: ECO
03/11/98 12:28 EST prnewswire.com
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