|
I do think we go up in the stock market (the indexes) until sometime in April, then we get a little correction to initial support levels, a mild rally which fails to take out the highs, and then the beginning of a much bigger correction that will be meaningful in its severity and duration. Frankly speaking, and I know this sounds like I'm nuts, I kind of think the dow could see 6000 sometime this year. I dont even like admitting to this due to the unpopularity of this opinion and due to the seeming improbability of its outcome at the current time. But, there you have it, my true inner opinion of where we will be. Now, I wouldnt bet the ranch on that. In fact, I wont bet a dime on that opinion. Thats because I specialize in buying things which others dont want, the undervalued, the forgotten, the homeless. Show me an illiquid, frustrated, fatigued asset class or stock or distressed bond, and I'll show you a home if my analysis determines that there exists value. That is my training and analytical expertise. I do not short(in stocks) because its a different game requiring different specialization. However, I do short things mentally just for the fun of it and I will short futures contracts. But the S&P short side is a dogs life these days. Timing has to be perfect or else you get hanged and then some. I am currently accumulating some really beaten down base metal. copper, gold, and diamond mining exploration plays. |
