I am a novice on SI, but was following it for a few months as a lurker. I think that e-commerce will be big. Question is, who will be the leaders. Here is something clipped from the MacSurfer site (http:www.macsurfer.com) regarding e-commerce (no URL available, sorry). Hope it was not posted yet.
"Sustained high growth in the information technology (IT) industry means aiming for one billion (yes,that's with a "b") online users worldwide, says Frank Gens, senior vice president of Internet research for InternationalData Corporation (IDC). Gens described the coming five-year period as a time of "harrowing change" in the IT industry, with no clear winners in sight while he was speaking at IDC's annual Directions '98, a computer industry briefing in San Francisco.
Customer mindshare has yet to be dominated by anyone, Gens says. "We are on a remarkable odyssey toward the year 2002, and like all odysseys, there will be many hard-fought battles along the way," Gens said. "We see a massive 40-fold increase in the number of Web transactions, and a four-fold increase in the number of users, by 2002. This growth, however,will come at a price to some of today's established vendors." Among Gens' predictions, as listed in an IDG press release: Personal computers will no longer be the dominant Internet access device. As early as 2001, non-PCs--information appliances, network computers, WebTV, gaming consoles, etc.--will represent nearly half of all Web access devices shipped in the U.S., up from 4% today. Nearly 80% of all personal computers shipped in the U.S. will be priced under $1,500 (US). Bandwidth, seen as the key limit to Internet growth, will be widely available and competitively priced. "The future of the bandwidth crisis has been greatly exaggerated," Gens says. New platforms will emerge. Intel Corp. will introduce a non-Pentium chip line, and Microsoft will unveil a non-Windows operating system, Gens predicts.
Megamergers and shakeups are ahead, as the Internet meets the corporate enterprise. Initially forecast in his 1998 IT industry predictions, Gens alluded to a potential acquisition of Netscape by Oracle Corporation. In today's speech, Gens predicted that Sun Microsystems will also need to strengthen itself through acquisitions
in 1998. IDC pegs the worldwide market for Web commerce at $8 billion in 1997, reaching $333 billion by 2002. The number of wired users will jump from 82 million to 329 million in the same time frame."
Tlindt, applaud your picking of CYCH at 10 3/8. I was able to average it at ~13 big time. Good investing to everybody.
ZC
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