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Z, up until a couple months ago, I would have agreed with you. But things have gotten worse, and it appears a recovery requires a longer timetable. And I too thought it would see $100 in 2000, but I no longer believe it will see anywhere near that. The business has become surprisingly competitive. I thought the tremendous quality requirements would keep many from entering, but it has not. And although MEMC is number 2, they're still no threat to number 1. Note their relatively minimal sales to INTC (my yardstick). I would LOVE to think you're right, because I own this stock, but I think '98 is a lost cause. Now if you're not already "in", you could argue it has some potential. Wait for a market correction (or the gutterball earnings report that's looming ahead) and get in at firesale prices. At these low levels, it doesn't take much to move the percentages. But there are so many better opportunities out there, if you don't already own it, why not pick something with more upside? Internet commerce has so much potential it's overwhelming. It will impact the way business is conducted as much as fax machines, overnight mail services, and cellular phones have. We'll wonder how we got by without it. |
