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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor

GDXJ 114.87

+3.6%

Dec 11 4:00 PM EST

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To: PaulM who wrote (8621)	3/21/1998 12:04:00 AM
From: Terry Rose	Read Replies (1) of 116811

Paul, I find it very curious that the U.S. has not tried to talk the dollar down or intervene at this stage of the game. Sooner or later the yen will drop to a value where the Japanese have to substantially liquidate their U.S. bond and equity assets to prevent a meltdown. This will have a severe effect on our markets. My suspicion is that the current gameplan is that Japan is liquidating these assets at a slow enough rate not to effect the U.S. bond and stock market. I also think that the plan is not working as evidenced by the drop in the value of the yen. There is probably a critical dollar yen ratio that is a flashpoint. When hit the rate of liquidation will accelerate and these U.S. assets will have to be sold into a down market. An analyst that I have great respect for predicted three years ago that our markets would crash as a result of a liquidity crisis in Japan. His current prediction is that one of Japan's top four banks would go bankrupt this year and that it would be like an atom bomb going off. Terry,

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