Topic--shorting Internet high fliers:
I regard the internet high-fliers as a fad--
after all, if anybody can throw up a jazzy
site, how easy it is for people to suddenly
change their portal to something new. The
potential for profitable shorting here (or for me
putting if I can find options that are not too
expensive) looks very good.
The trickiest thing is mis-judging how long it
could take the millions of AOL users (or people
who have excite or yahoo or whatever as
their home page) to find other places to start.
I personally start on at&t's home site, until
IE spirals down (doesnt take too long) and then I
start up Netscape, which starts at Yahoo quotes.
So I like Yahoo, not that I have looked at the
relative valuations, but you cant short/put what
you like, plenty of other choices anyway.
Surely AOL for instance will experience erosion
of their membership as people defect to local
ISP's, or the total base of internet junkies
shifts more evenly between the big players.
I know I am going to have to buy puts on something
here in April, I think I will throw in the towel
on MSFT--especially after Microsoft said it will
go with HP's Java, an alliance seems to be shaping
up there, especially considering Merced and HP too.
Anyway, AOL has got to be the one to bet against,
any other ideas out there for Internet shorts? |
